My interpretation of the information revolution is that it is increasingly burdened by diminishing returns. Chief among the doomsayers is robert gordon, whose new book forecasts stagnant productivity for the united states for the foreseeable future. In this, he challenges the conventional view of economists that economic growth. The software titles below are offered for academic andor personal use to northwestern faculty and staff or students. He is known for his work on productivity, growth, the causes of unemployment, and airline economics. But have we, as robert gordon argues, already had the best of the revolution. August 2004, five puzzles in the behavior of productivity. This is the uncomfortable vision put forward by robert j. Northwestern university economist robert gordon argues that new technology cant improve living standards as dramatically as it did 100 years ago.
The rise and fall of american growth, the northwestern university professor lays. Gordon skillfully lays out myriad information about the history and trends of productivity. My book forecast, going out 25 years in the future, productivity growth of 1. Robert gordon of northwestern university, il nu read 242 publications contact robert gordon. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton. Unlikely to see rapid, techfueled growth in future. The first, championed by robert gordon, an economist at northwestern university, suggests humanity has run out of big ideas. Robert gordon is a macroeconomist with a particular interest in unemployment, inflation, and both the longrun and cyclical aspects of labor productivity.
Dec 28, 2012 recently, robert gordon of northwestern university created a stir by arguing that economic growth is likely to slow sharply indeed, that the age of growth that began in the 18th century may. He has argued also persuasively that todays innovations in areas like information and communications technology ict cannot be expected to have as big an economic payoff as those of the past, such as electricity and the automobile. Interestingly, a prominent voice on the other side of the debate is joel mokyr, gordons colleague at northwestern university, where the two are affectionately known as a kind of economic odd. Evidence that trend productivity growth is faster when unemployment is low as in the 1960s and 1990s. Back in august 2012, northwestern university professor robert gordon published a controversial paper titled is u. Gordon right debated contrastingviews of americas economic future at a northwestern political union event. Robert gordon s notable history of economics and living standards by wendell cox 08202016 professor robert j.
Famed northwestern macroeconomist robert gordon predicts end to lifechanging innovation. Robert gordons notable history of economics and living standards. Macroeconomy with a particular interest in unemployment, inflation, and both the longrun and cyclical aspects of labor productivity. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton economic. Third industrial revolution will not transform our lives. He is the author of a textbook in intermediate macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition, and has completed a new book, the rise and fall of american growth, published by the princeton university press in january, 2016.
Nov 20, 2016 robert gordon of northwestern university argues that major technological breakthroughs lie behind us. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton economic series of the western world. Us the productivity miracle is over robert gordon says. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university chalks this up to the fact that we are using methods and procedures that are over a decade old. Five puzzles in the behaviour of productivity, investment and. Gordon department of economics northwestern university evanston, il 602082600 tel. Gordon northwestern university and nber this version january 20, 2014 this paper provides a sequel to my previous nber working paper is u. Five puzzles in the behaviour of productivity, investment. In april economics professors robert gordon and joel mokyr butted heads over the future of americas economic growth in the northwestern political unions annual clash of the intellectual titans, moderated by fellow professor mark witte 87 ma, 97 phd. Economist robert gordon lays out 4 reasons us growth may be. Gordon northwestern university unemployment and potential output in the 1980s the two most outstanding features to date of the 198384. Standard of living since the civil war is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or history. Rise and fall of american growth, the the princeton economic series of the western world robert j. Silicon valley, where many believe that software is eating the world.
Productivity growth over the past century with a view of the future, nber working papers 15834, national bureau of economic research, inc. According to robert gordon, growth in the future wont be pretty. Some experts think that the current global economic slowdown is a temporary blip in longterm growth. Robert gordon is one of the worlds leading experts on inflation, unemployment, and productivity growth. Free exchange doing less with more finance and economics. Department of economics northwestern university kellogg global hub 2211 campus drive. Northwestern economists robert gordon and joel mokyr debate critical issue april 28, 2016.
The much greater excess of productivity growth over output per person in the. Greenspans grim forecast for growth the washington post. Gordon, distinguished economist from northwestern university. Economists intensely debate what has caused this productivity eclipse. Martin baily told me about another economist who has a surprising explanation of the paradox robert gordon. He is the author of a textbook in intermediate macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition, and has. Why the economic payoff from technology is so elusive. Ais implications for productivity, wages, and employment. Why productivity lags, according to alan greenspan. American economic history g force books and arts the. Five puzzles in the behaviour of productivity, investment and innovation.
Economist robert gordon has spent his career studying what makes the us. So much innovation has gone into the iphone and all the associated apps, and we dont see a pickup in productivity growth. Solving the productivity mystery the washington post. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since solows seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. Robert gordon s the rise and fall of american growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism. The rise and fall of american growth hashtag for twitter users. Why robert gordon thinks growth is over and what we. Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds robert j.
Feb 24, 2014 back in august 2012, northwestern university professor robert gordon published a controversial paper titled is u. Apr 28, 2016 other signs that indicate americas economic heyday is over, gordon said, are that by world war ii the average work week had shrunk from 60 hours to 40, but hasnt changed since, and that productivity growth in the last six years is as slow as its been in u. This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic. Gordon has long been associated with the view that future economic growth will be slower than that of the fairly recent past.
But northwestern university professor and famed bear robert gordon has a new paper arguing that technology will not improve economic. Oct 31, 2016 robert gordon, author of the rise and fall of american growth, and joel mokyr, author of a culture of growth, talk about whether, economically, americas best days are in its past. Introduction the prospects for future longrun us economic growth were already dismal in 2007 but were. Robert gordon, a celebrated economic historian and northwestern university professor, addresses these questions in his magisterial new book, the rise and fall of american growth. After 150 years, the american productivity miracle is over quartz. Gordon is a wellknown economist and a professor at northwestern university. A member of the national bureau of economic research, his most notable work is in the area of productivity. Famed northwestern macroeconomist robert gordon predicts end. Robert gordon of northwestern university claims it is so slow because most companies are still operating the same business methods and procedures that have been in place for at least ten years, despite technology changing. Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds robert j gordon northwestern university and cepr cepr policy insight no. Two distinguished northwestern university economics professors offered starkly contrasting views of americas economic future tuesday april 27 in a debate billed as a clash of the intellectual titans. Harris professor of the social sciences at northwestern university.
Economist robert gordon predicts us productivity growth will slow dramatically. According to a recent book by northwestern university economist robert. Nov 20, 2017 ais implications for productivity, wages, and employment. If a needed application is not listed, first contact your local it department to see if they have an active license for it. In the 80s and 90s there was a phenomenal boost in workplace productivity. If an application required for university purposes is not offered at the university, please complete a. Faltering innovation and the six headwinds, wp 18315, august 2012. Robert gordons notable history of economics and living. Robert gordon, the special century, and the prospects for. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university has argued that.
After 150 years, the american productivity miracle is over. Jun 02, 2017 economists call this the productivity paradox. Aug 12, 2016 why are american workers getting less productive. Rethinking productivity by diane coyle project syndicate. Low wages are both a cause and a consequence of low productivity. Northwestern university s robert gordon is less optimistic. However, robert gordon, an economist at northwestern university and one of the most outspoken neweconomy sceptics a stance that requires considerable courage in america today, is less impressed. Gordon northwestern university and nber nabe annual meeting september 30, 2018. D24,e2,e66,j11,j15,o3,o31,o4,q43 abstract this paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. Yet an expert on productivity, robert gordon of northwestern university, has raised it in a provocative paper. Department of economics northwestern university kellogg global hub. Lorien kite, financial times in the course of gordon s book, a vivid picture of everyday life as our parents, grandparents, and greatgrandparents lived it emerges. Standard of living since the civil war is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or.
Northwestern university economist robert gordon is one of the foremost tech productivity growth pessimists he might prefer the term realist with his views most fully expressed in his. Gordon argues that all of the epochal advances, from running water and electricity to the internal combustion and jet engines, have been made. Robert bob gordon is an american economist and the stanley g. Gordon emphasizes his points with a number of graphs showing a slowdown in u. Are so called productivity tools failing to increase.
Economist robert gordon of northwestern university chalks this up to the fact that we are using methods and procedures that are over a. Economists such as robert gordon of northwestern university argue that this slump in productivity growth reflects the stagnation of technology. If the software allows drivers to take up driving jobs with less. Gordon says computers and the internet, they did give us a lot of productivity growth back in the 90s and early aughts. Robert gordon, professor of economics at northwestern university, discusses his book, the rise and fall of american growth, in which he looks at the growth in the american standard of living. Why robert gordon thinks growth is over and what we can. Mar 09, 2016 in his magisterial new book, the rise and fall of american growth, the northwestern university professor lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the american way of life was. Inflation dynamics and the distribution of income, brookings papers on economic activity, 2005. In a new book, economist robert gordon argues that the period from 1870 to 1970 is a special century that is unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated. Professsor mokyr has a tough road ahead of him if he tries to put a happy face on this. Economist robert gordon of northwestern university blames diminished innovation.
Northwestern economists robert gordon and joel mokyr debate critical issue. Us economist robert gordon takes aim at technophiles and their faith in innovation. Apr 23, 20 the us economy has been expanding wildly for two centuries. The dark history of our obsession with productivity. The thing is that in the frenzy to be more productive, we as a nation have become a little less so. This ebullient productivity performance raises numerous questions about its interpretation and its implications for the future, and these are stated here in the form of five puzzles. Structural unemployment and the productivity of women, discussion papers 251, northwestern university, center for mathematical studies in economics and management science.
Robert gordon of northwestern university argues that major technological breakthroughs lie behind us. A survey of the new economy solving the paradox special. Development of the american economy, economic fluctuations and growth, productivity, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Solving the productivity mystery rich lipskithe washington post. Mar 12, 2016 filed under productivity, us in his magisterial new book, the rise and fall of american growth, the northwestern university professor economist robert gordon lays out the case that the productivity miracle underlying the american way of life was largely a onetime deal. The push to eversmaller devices runs up against the fixed size of the human finger that must enter information on the device. Theyll invest in new software but not in longlasting projects. Northwestern university s robert gordon, for example, predicts that productivity growth will continue to slow as it has done in most developed economies since the mid2000s because todays digital innovations are, in his view, less transformative than earlier advances like the flush toilet, radio, and the internal combustion engine.
The us standard of living since the civil war, princeton university press. Productivity growth in the united states was considerably faster during 200003 than in the boom years of 19952000. Economics professors robert gordon, left, and joel mokyr. An american economist who teaches at northwestern university, mr gordon has long been famous in academic. Gordon, a social sciences professor at northwestern university, is the author of the textbook, macroeconomics, and a member of the national bureau of economic research panel that.